Our analysis covers a wide range of factors influencing political donations, including party affiliation, household income, political ideology, age, ethnicity, and education level. Additionally, we examined significant donation spikes and their correlation with major political events as well as the most effective donation amount and more.

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This analysis uses a dataset of 58,000 U.S. citizens in the Caden.io data-sharing app (an AnthologyAI company). It details donation amounts and demographic attributes, such as political ideology, income, and age, to uncover patterns and drivers of donor behavior. Caden.io data is sourced directly and ethically from a panel of US consumers.

Insights into Political Giving

Campaign Donations by Party Affiliation
Donations to both Democratic and Republican parties exhibit cyclical patterns, often peaking around key political milestones. This behavior reflects heightened mobilization efforts in the electoral process.

Campaign Donations by Household Income
Higher-income brackets, particularly those earning $150,000+, contribute significantly more, suggesting a link between income and political financial involvement.

Campaign Donations by Political Ideology

‍Most Voters with a Balanced Ideology are donating to Democratic Campaigns:
In Week 25 of 2023, there is a significant spike in donations from balanced voters. This spike indicates a response to a specific political event or campaign initiative, showcasing the potential influence of balanced voters as a crucial swing demographic. Key events during this time included the Republican presidential primary debates; mass shooting in Baltimore and President Biden's Loan Forgiveness Blocked by the Supreme Court. We noted, most balanced voters are donating to Democratic funds like ActBlue. 

Fluctuations Among Very Conservative Donors: Very Conservative donors exhibit noticeable fluctuations, with spikes observed around Weeks 30 and 46 of 2022, and several peaks in early 2024. These spikes suggest that while Very Conservative donors are responsive to particular political events, they  have been less volatile than Liberal groups throughout the election cycle.

Highest Volatility in Moderate and Very Liberal Donations: Donations from Moderate and Very Liberal voters display pronounced volatility, with significant spikes during key political events. Notably, there are sharp increases around Weeks 27 and 46 of 2023, as well as a surge in July 2024. These peaks align with significant political events, such as Biden announcing his decision to drop out of the presidential race, reflecting a heightened sense of urgency among these groups.‍

Campaign Donations by Age Group
Older age groups (45-54 and 55+) consistently donate more, indicating a trend where individuals with more disposable income and established political views are likelier to contribute.

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Campaign Donations by Ethnicity
White donors dominate contributions, followed by Hispanic/Latino and Black communities, while Pacific Islanders and American Indians show significantly lower donation activity.

Campaign Donations by Education Level
Higher educational attainment correlates with increased political donations, highlighting greater engagement and financial capability among the more educated.

Significant Donation Spikes

• Balanced Ideology: Major spikes in donations occurred in April and June 2024, aligning with primary elections and national debates.
• Moderately Conservative: Donation peaks in April and May 2024 appear to be linked to specific conservative ballot measures.
• Moderately Liberal: The highest contributions were recorded in July 2024, coinciding with significant endorsements for liberal candidates, where donations surged to $900.

We cross-referenced the recent spikes with major political events. What we observed suggests that donors are particularly reactive to immediate political climates. For example, the surge among donors who identified as Moderately Liberal in July 2024 coincides with the recent concentration of political events such as Biden's press conference at the NATO Summit, where he faced criticism for mistakenly referring to Ukrainian President Zelensky as Putin This was followed by Trump's assassination attempt and, finally, Biden announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race.

Strategic Implications 

Pricing / Contribution Optimization

Based on AnthologyAI data we found that the average political donation was $12.80 after removing outliers of donations greater than $1000 and the median donation $5.00 leading us to some strategic inferences about the optimal price point for optimizing donations from Americans.

The median donation amount of $5.00 is particularly telling. It suggests that half of all donations are at or below this amount, indicating a strong preference or comfort level among a significant portion of donors for contributing $5. This makes $5 a psychologically appealing and accessible figure for a broad base of supporters, aligning with typical small-dollar donation strategies used by many political campaigns. 

However, while $5 is an excellent entry-level ask to donors, it’s also crucial for campaigns to offer higher suggested amounts for those willing and able to give more. This is where strategic segmentation and testing of the $12.80 among key cohorts leveraging AnthologyAI could yield a greater return. 

Socioeconomic Trends‍

AnthologyAI data reveals that higher education and income levels are strong predictors of both the likelihood to donate and the donation amount. Individuals with advanced degrees (Master’s, Doctorate, Professional degrees) and those in higher income brackets ($150,000+) are more inclined to make significant contributions. This underscores the importance of targeted campaign strategies that focus on these demographics. Tailoring messages to emphasize the stakes of political outcomes and the impact of their contributions can further engage these potential donors.

Election Cycles

Donations peak around key phases of the election cycle, such as primaries and candidate nominations. Aligning fundraising efforts with these periods can maximize donation inflows. AnthologyAI data can help pinpoint these critical times, allowing campaigns to plan intensive fundraising drives that coincide with heightened voter engagement and media coverage.

Voter Engagement

Timing fundraising campaigns with major political events can capitalize on heightened public interest. AnthologyAI data shows that donations from individuals identifying as "Very Conservative" and "Very Liberal" spike during politically charged events. Campaigns can leverage this by synchronizing their fundraising activities with debates, conventions, and significant political announcements, thereby tapping into the increased political fervor of these periods.

Year-End Giving

The year-end giving season presents a strategic opportunity for political campaigns. Many donors are in a charitable mindset during this time, and campaigns can capitalize on this by making strong, emotionally resonant appeals. AnthologyAI data indicates that even less politically active donors are more likely to contribute during this period, making it an ideal time for broad fundraising appeals that can attract a wide range of supporters.

Future Work

Further research could explore the impact of local and state-level political events on donations and extend predictive modeling to include more granular demographic and consumer behavior data. AnthologyAI's Voter Analytics solution offers near-real-time consumer data and analytics, providing strategists with responsive insights into voter behavior. This platform integrates political affiliations with financial behaviors, empowering campaigns with actionable intelligence to engage effectively with voters across diverse demographics.